Tornáda majú šancu na vznik aj dnes

Predovšetkým na Balkáne a v strednej Európe sa aj dnes očakávajú veľmi silné búrky. Dnešné búrky by do našej oblasti mali prinášať predovšetkým prívalové zrážky. Meteorologická služba Estofex dnes vydala analýzu, podľa ktorej hrozia silné búrky severovýchodne od nášho územia na poľsko-ukrajinskom pohraničí. V oblasti, ktorá je na mape vyznačená stupňom 2 sa očakávajú búrky s intenzívnymi prívalovými zrážkami a vzhľadom na podmienky nie je opäť vylúčené ani slabšie tornádo. 

Pôvodná predpoveď:

The lack of strong QG forcing does not exclude the possibility of severe phenomena in the region. The ongoing WAA during Thursday brings moist air masses from the south and diabatic heating tomorrow is expected to produce widespread lift. Forecast soundings based on GFS show quite fat mid-level CAPE profiles, suggesting the potential of strong updrafts, thus large hail is expected. Several parameters replenish the absence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong DLS, like the low-level strong shear with curved hodographs,1-1.6 kJ/kg MLCAPE and MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg.Damaging winds and tornadoes are also possible during an isolated supercell near the borders of the countries in the afternoon. More isolated convection is expected in south from the level 2 area, where DLS is calculated near 10-12 m/s. The main threat will be excessive precipitation from slowly moving thunderstorms. Some storms may move NW towards the center of Poland during the night.,,